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The frequent occurrence of extreme weather in recent years poses a significant threat to food production. Ensuring food production and rationalizing the use of agricultural resources require addressing the problem of the improper application of chemical fertilizers. Several effective measures have been implemented in China to reduce agricultural non-point source pollution. Among them, the reduction of excessive nitrogen fertilizer application proves to be the most effective approach in controlling surface pollution from cultivation. Currently, it is crucial to clarify and quantify crop nutrient fertilizer requirements while evaluating the potential for reducing nitrogen fertilizer usage in China. Nitrogen requirements for major crops grown in China were assessed based on the theory of crop nutrient balance, assuming constant grain production as a guarantee. In this paper, we analyze the potential for nitrogen reduction through short-term, medium-term, and long-term scenario predictions. The results show that in the next 3 years, China has a reduction potential of 34.98%, but this potential is not sustainable. Over the next 10 years, there is a reduction potential of 15.04%, with most provinces experiencing a balanced state of soil nitrogen cycling. Hainan, Beijing, Shaanxi, and Fujian have higher reduction potential, with possible reductions of 69.95%, 64.14%, 60.72%, and 54.10%, respectively. However, there are still provinces in China where nitrogen fertilizer is insufficient, leading to soil nitrogen consumption. Specifically, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, and Shandong Provinces need to increase their nitrogen fertilizer applications by 87.00%, 35.97%, and 8.31%, respectively. The long-term scenario analysis over the next 30 years shows a reduction potential of 40.96%. Among the regions analyzed, Hainan, Beijing, Shaanxi, Fujian, and Ningxia have higher nitrogen fertilizer reduction potentials, with values of 78.97%, 78.48%, 74.25%, 67.87%, and 67.72%, respectively. However, Heilongjiang Province still needs to increase nitrogen fertilizer application by 44.20% to address soil nitrogen depletion. Conversely, Tibet and Qinghai, with high organic fertilizer yields, lower chemical fertilizer usage, and low nitrogen loss coefficients, are well-suited for organic agriculture development. For areas with high organic fertilizers usage and a risk of fertilizer loss, we recommend implementing the organic-inorganic mixed fertilization planting mode. © 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
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