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ABSTRACT This paper addresses three questions: （1） what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; （2） given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and （3） what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of ?12% on average over 20112018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline （Sochi-plus） moderate scenario, an optimistic （robust political settlement） scenario, and a pessimistic （de facto balance of power） scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict.
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